Page 46 - Waste-to-Energy in the Danube Strategy Region. Challenges and Prospects

Figure 7 shows the trend lines for waste intensity in the DSR countries over an 11-year

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period from 2006 to 2016. Waste intensity measures the amount of waste generated per unit of
GDP. In this case, the trend lines indicate an overall downward trend for most DSR countries. In

many cases the slope is rather gentle, but in the case of Romania a drastic decrease is apparent,

especially from 2006 to 2010. Montenegro and Serbia are the only two countries with clearly

upward trends. Bulgaria and Germany also show a slight increase over the 11-year period, though

with greater fluctuation in the case of Bulgaria. The general trend in the DSR therefore appears to
be a decoupling of economic growth and waste generation.

Taken together, the above data suggests an overall stable situation in terms of waste

generation in the DSR countries. For the most part, growth in total generation of MSW is rather
stable year to year. Furthermore, the general trend in waste intensity indicates a decoupling of

economic growth and waste generation. Of course, there could be certain economic factors and

developments underlying these trends that are not evidenced by this data. Likewise, economic

development may affect total waste (excl. major mineral waste) differently than municipal solid
waste, as economies transition towards more services and household income rises. Nevertheless,

the picture appears stable in this area. It would seem, therefore, that the assumption of stable

MSW generation made in the capacity gap calculation in the previous section is not so unrealistic.

When planning new WtE developments it is critical that each country think also about the long-
term availability of the required feedstock. Looking at trends in MSW generation and waste

intensity provides one piece of the puzzle. However, additional factors, such as broader plans in

waste management especially in the areas of prevention and recycling, also must be taken into

consideration. With this information each individual country can then make a more informed
decision regarding the potentially required capacities for individual waste management

operations, including energy recovery.

8 Total waste excluding major mineral wastes.
Project co-funded by the European Union
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