Page 40 - Waste-to-Energy in the Danube Strategy Region. Challenges and Prospects

The first step was to calculate the percentage of Total waste (excluding major mineral

waste) comprised by MSW (% MSW, column 4) based on Eurostat data. Then, again based on
Eurostat data, an estimate was made for WtE capacity for MSW by multiplying the % MSW by the

Total R1 capacity for total waste (excluding major mineral waste) to yield the figure R1 MSW cap.

est. Next, 25% MSW was calculated, representing the amount of waste available for energy
recovery while meeting the 10% landfill and 65% recycling targets set for 2035. Finally, the

Estimated capacity gap was calculated as the difference between the 25% MSW figure and the R1

MSW cap. est. What this calculation reveals is that the majority of DSR countries appear to face

significant capacity shortages for WtE in a circular economy context and therefore considerable

potential for development in this area.
Furthermore, this calculation can be regarded as rather conservative because of the

method employed and certain underlying assumptions. Firstly, the calculation of the estimated

current WtE capacity for MSW relies on the assumption that the proportion of MSW represented
in Total waste also applies to WtE capacity. For those five countries mentioned above for which

CEWEP data was available, this figure was used instead. Comparing the CEWEP figures with the

estimates provides some interesting insights. For three of the countries (Czech Republic, Germany,

Slovakia), the estimates are relatively close to the CEWEP figure. For Austria the estimate is

considerably lower, while for Hungary it is considerably higher. What this suggests is that while
the estimate is suitable for giving a preliminary picture regarding the capacity gap, ultimately it

would be necessary to apply the actual current capacity of WtE plants using MSW, as done with

the CEWEP data.
The calculation of the capacity gap also assumes that waste generation will remain stable

through 2035. Given the oft-cited connection between waste generation and economic

development, however, it would certainly be expected that the absolute amount of MSW

generated in each country would increase over time. On the other hand, waste prevention efforts
implemented as part of the circular economy would have the opposite effect. Overall, however,

this assumption would also appear to make the resulting estimate rather conservative. Trends in

waste generation are discussed further below.

Project co-funded by the European Union
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